AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are posting 4 to 5 cents losses so far on Monday. Heavy rains are expected in much of the Corn Belt over the next week. Part of the selling pressure is from China’s list of retaliatory tariffs, which include ethanol, DDGs Sorghum, etc. This morning’s Export Inspections report indicated that 1.669 MMT of corn was shipped in the week that ended on June 14. That was 18.31% larger than the week prior and 36.74% more than the same week in 2017. Inspections YTD are now within 8.53% of a year ago, slowly gaining over the past several weeks. Managed money spec funds slashed their net long position by 77,383 contracts in the week of 6/12. On that date, they were net long just 36,216 contracts.

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.56 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.66 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents,

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.78, down 4 3/4 cents

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.87 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are mixed at midday, with nearby July a penny higher. Front Month soy meal is down $2.50/ton, with soy oil up 5 points. Traders are taking profits and covering shorts to start the week, at least in July, though back months have slipped lower. That is following a sharp selloff so far in June that has seen 10 of the 11 sessions in the July contract close lower, and a loss of $1.13. Trade issues with China are likely priced in at the moment, following last week’s sharp losses. Export inspections in the week that ended 6/14 were reported at 818,396 MT by the USDA this morning. That is 21.13% larger than the previous week and more than 180% above the same time last year. Total shipments YTD are 7% behind this time a year ago at 48.307 MMT (1.775 bbu).

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $9.06 1/2, up 1 cent,

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $9.11 1/4, down 1/4 cent,

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $9.16 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $9.28 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybean Meal is at $336.40, down $2.50

Jul 18 Soybean Oil is at $29.55, up $0.05

Wheat

Wheat futures are trading 3 to 6 cents in the red in MPLS, with CBT down 8 to 12 cents and KC 25 to 16 cents lower. Inspections of all wheat for export in the week that ended on June 14 were tallied at 372,843 MT by the USDA this morning. That is just half of what was reported for the same week last year and a drop of 11.15% from the week prior. Total inspections in the first 2 weeks of the 18/19 MY are down 51.35% from the same time in the 17/18 MY. The managed money net long position in Chicago wheat futures and options was cut by 1,383 contracts in the week ending 6/12, with the net position at 14,903. They continued to add to their net long in KC wheat to 61,091 contracts. South Korea has suspended purchases of Canadian sourced wheat over the weekend, following Japan’s similar announcement on Friday after unapproved GMO wheat was discovered in Alberta.

Jul 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.91 1/4, down 8 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 KCBT Wheat is at $5.03 1/2, down 16 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.67, down 3 3/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures are mixed at midday, with nearby June down 27.5 cents and back months lower. Feeder cattle futures are up 15 to 37.5 cents. The CME feeder cattle index was at $140.73 on June 13, up 3 cents from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Monday morning. Choice boxes were up $1.49 to $223.08, with Select boxes $1.54 higher at $204.27. USDA weekly FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 654,000 head for last week through Saturday. That was 4,000 head below the previous week. A few $113 bids were reported late on Friday, with some scattered trade reported at that price. Managed money spec funds in live cattle futures and options added 9,278 contracts to their net long position to 23,271 contracts as of Tuesday.

Jun 18 Cattle are at $108.175, down $0.275,

Aug 18 Cattle are at $105.225, up $0.450,

Oct 18 Cattle are at $107.375, up $0.350,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.350, up $0.375

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.550, up $0.275

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.000, up $0.150

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are showing 30 cent to $1.55 gains on Monday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $1.35 to $81.44 on June 14. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was reported at $83.84 on Monday morning, down 25 cents. The Loin was the only primal cut reported lower. The national base carcass price was up just 4 cents from the previous day, averaging $83.01. Last week’s USDA estimated hog slaughter was at 2.215 million head. That is 56,000 head lower than the previous week on lighter Saturday slaughter. Managed money was shown to trim their net short position in lean hog futures and options by 5,045 contracts as of Tuesday to -4,153 contracts.

Jul 18 Hogs are at $83.275, up $1.550,

Aug 18 Hogs are at $78.825, up $0.575

Oct 18 Hogs are at $64.600, up $0.325

Cotton

Cotton futures are posting another round of sharp losses on Monday, with nearby July down 252 points. Areas in the Texas High Plains received rains over the weekend, which were much needed for that region. Trade issues and Specs taking profits are adding to the selling pressure. Nearby July was down 4.44% on the week. The Cotlook A index was UNCH from day prior at 101.45 cents/lb on June 15. The weekly AWP was updated to 82.99 cents/lb for this week, good through Thursday. Friday’s CFTC data showed managed money trimming the cotton net long position by 788 contracts to a net position of 88,911 contracts as of Tuesday.

Jul 18 Cotton is at 88.2, down 252 points,

Oct 18 Cotton is at 89.69, down 159 points

Dec 18 Cotton is at 88.24, down 161 points

Mar 19 Cotton is at 88.040, down 172 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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