“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B. Swift

​5/15/2025

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Live Cattle:

Greed and fear make people do strange things.  This weeks market action is exactly greed and fear. With basis worsening in the fat market, it leaves no room for error in bidding for feeder cattle inventory.  With some inclinations that feeder cattle are meeting with stiff resistance, due to horribly projected breakevens, cattle feeders may finally be starting to take matters into their own hands.  April 9 is when cattle recovered from the announcements of Tariffs to make this weeks high.  Therefore, I expect the next most probable move to be back to the April 9 low per respective contract month.  

Feeder Cattle:

Greed and fear make people do strange things.  This weeks market action is exactly greed and fear.  With basis negative to even until Wednesday's close, backgrounders have no room for error as the basis is expected to widen in a positive manner by great lengths until actions by cattle feeders become more pronounced in the sale barns.  Even then, it could be a Tortoise and Hare race with the Hare leaping sharply lower in anticipation of the Tortoise coming behind.  Recall the last time I used this analogy the Tortoise never followed the Hare, and the Hare had to catch the Tortoise.  While it may happen again, I look for the Hare to make some headway lower before caring where the Tortoise is.  Wednesday and Thursday's price range is wide.  Potentially, traders may breath a little on Friday and produce a little volatility.  Of concern would be that when the US and Mexico can agree upon whatever it is they are disagreeing on, the protocols to reopen the Southern border would be expected to meet quickly and produce an even larger decline than what it did incline.  I am not negating the seriousness of the screwworm. I am very apprehensive that the closing of the border is really due to the screwworm. Of one thing for sure, this little worm has screwed a lot of cattlemen.   

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Corn:

​Corn was soft with beans sharply lower.  Bean oil took it on the chin today with the release of lower bio-fuels mandate.  This pushed new crop Novembers back to just under $10.40.  I recommend buying the $11.00 November soybean calls.  This is a sales solicitation. 

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Energy:

​Energy was lower today.  Crude down the most.  I recommend you top of farm tanks or forward contract some fuel needs.  This is a sales solicitation.  

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Bonds:

​Bonds are a little higher after setting a new low in this decline.  The PPI report wasn't bullish bonds, but wasn't bearish either.  If, or as the US gains more popularity and were trade deals with China to go through, it would be considered bullish for the bonds.  China could begin buying US debt and the Fed at home may have to do something by years end.  ​​

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 “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

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