Crude Holds the Line—Eyes on OPEC+ and Russian Sanctions

WTI Crude Oil Futures (July Future)

Yesterday’s Settlement: 60.89, down -0.64 [-1.04%]

WTI Crude Oil futures were relative underperformers on a risk-on Tuesday. On Sunday, President Trump announced a delay to the 50% tariffs on the EU, which were scheduled to go into effect on June 1st.

The tariff delay drove risk-on trade flows alongside a “re-dollarization” theme as the Dollar, US equities, and treasuries all rallied. Crude oil was a bearish outlier yesterday as OPEC+ concerns outweighed the bullish tariff sentiment.

The fears around OPEC+ are tied to their meeting on Saturday (May 31st), where July production hikes will be decided.

Wednesday morning, OPEC+ has a standard meeting to discuss markets, quotas, and general business. Today is not a decision-making event, but we’ll update clients via our research portal if any headlines arise.

In other news yesterday, CNN ran a headline that President Trump was considering tightening sanctions on Russia in response to weekend attacks on Kyiv. This headline helped to drive Crude off the lows seen around 60.26 yesterday.

Today, WTI Crude Oil is up +0.61 [1.00%] to 61.50

Several OPEC+ delegates said this morning that they expect the group to leave their longer-term production targets for 2025 and 2026 unchanged.

Rumors and head-fakes going into OPEC decisions are standard, we caution against trading any news-flow or rumors before Saturday’s decision.

Having said that, the undercurrent of tighter Russian sanctions and failing Iran talks could offset most of OPEC+ hikes.

Data Releases:

N/A – EIA report tomorrow due to the holiday Monday

Technical Analysis:

July futures settled just below support yesterday, but have rallied back above our key support level of 61.00-61.26*** again this morning. Our, outlook has been for a choppy, range-bound trade this week as markets await Saturday’s OPEC+ decision.

We are eying the 59.56-60.08*** level closely. This level held Friday and yesterday which was good to see. But, If this level breaks, a run back to the lows around our rare four-star support level of 54.33-54.95**** looks realistic.

The relative weakness in crude oil yesterday was not ideal. We are weary of selling coming through on the US open this morning.

For intraday trading, our pivot and point of balance is set at..

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